Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 20

(5:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 17 for 10 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model