Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 86

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(9:17) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.35 EP
67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model