Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to NYJ 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (38-B.Bolden; 16-T.McEvoy). PENALTY on NYJ-17-C.Peake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model