Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(14:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 40 for 22 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model