Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

(5:34) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to LV 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-J.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model