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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

OAK
30.3%
DEN
69.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 18
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

OAK

P.J. Hall DT Out Ankle
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Foot
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Pectoral
DeAndre Washington RB Questionable Knee

DEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 19
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG LV (9:36) 6-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 11:52 FG LV (11:52) 6-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 00:38 TD LV (:38) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 12 – DEN 0
  • Q3 05:31 TD LV (5:31) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-S.Roberts for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-31-J.Simmons was injured during the play. DEN-25-C.Harris was injured during the play. OAK 18 – DEN 7
  • Q3 09:10 TD DEN (9:10) 28-R.Freeman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 12 – DEN 6
  • Q3 02:47 FG DEN (2:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. OAK 19 – DEN 10
  • Q4 06:02 TD DEN (6:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. OAK 19 – DEN 16
  • Q4 00:10 FG DEN (:10) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. OAK 19 – DEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (9:36) 6-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:11) 1-M.King punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-J.Nelson.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:33) 5-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to DEN 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:09) 1-M.King punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:26) 5-J.Townsend punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 24-A.Jones to DEN 18 for 1 yard (45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:50) 1-M.King punts 51 yards to LV 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 82-J.Nelson ran ob at LV 29 for 7 yards (35-Dy.Thomas).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 80%

    (11:52) 6-M.Nugent 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (7:40) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to DEN 36, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:34) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to LV 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-J.Nelson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (2:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 70%

    (13:11) 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 41-K.Smith.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (2:06) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.