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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 6-M.Nugent 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model