4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model