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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.18 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP