Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 0

(3:26) 5-J.Townsend punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 24-A.Jones to DEN 18 for 1 yard (45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model