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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 17 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.07 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model