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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 16.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
25.0%
MIN
75.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.017 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.113 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 17
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

BUF

Shaq Lawson DE Out Hamstring
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Shoulder
Ray-Ray McCloud WR Questionable Knee
Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Elbow
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Head
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Rib

MIN

Dalvin Cook RB Out Hamstring
Everson Griffen DE Out Knee
David Morgan TE Out Knee
Marcus Sherels CB Out Ribs
Mike Boone RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 27
–
MIN 6

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 TD BUF (10:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIN 0
  • Q1 07:27 FG BUF (7:27) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 10 – MIN 0
  • Q1 05:15 TD BUF (5:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 80-J.Croom for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – MIN 0
  • Q2 12:16 TD BUF (12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – MIN 0
  • Q2 06:21 FG BUF (6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 27 – MIN 0
  • Q4 03:03 TD MIN (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 27 – MIN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (7:27) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:07) 6-M.Wile punts 31 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIN-47-K.McDermott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 25.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 99%

    (12:16) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:11) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to MIN 48, impetus ends at MIN 49, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:51) 6-M.Wile punts 70 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-24-H.Hill.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (1:05) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to MIN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-58-M.Milano.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:47) 6-M.Wile punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:45) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIN 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 48. PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 48.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 36%

    (4:05) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:53) 6-M.Wile punts 60 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 31 for 13 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to MIN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 84%

    (11:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Ham (23-M.Hyde).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to MIN 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (2:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to MIN 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.