Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 91

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 24

(10:11) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to MIN 48, impetus ends at MIN 49, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.43 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 91, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model