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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 24 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model