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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-M.Wile punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model