Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to MIN 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 21-M.Hughes MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 48. PENALTY on BUF-30-L.Pitts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model