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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model