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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to MIN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model