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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to MIN 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-26-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.47 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model