Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Jones, Center-46-M.Cox, recovered by BAL-37-J.Allen at BAL 4. 37-J.Allen to BAL 6 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model