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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DEN
27.5%
BAL
72.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Adam Jones CB Questionable Thigh
Dymonte Thomas S Questionable Abdomen
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Knee
Jared Veldheer T Questionable Concussion

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Hamstring
Willie Henry DT Out Abdomen
Hayden Hurst TE Out Foot
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Knee
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Foot
Matt Judon LB Questionable Hamstring
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
BAL 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:33 TD DEN (13:33) 28-R.Freeman left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 11:01 TD BAL (11:01) Jackson in game. (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 07:11 TD DEN (7:11) 10-E.Sanders left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. End around play. DEN 13 – BAL 7
  • Q1 03:43 FG BAL (3:43) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. DEN 14 – BAL 10
  • Q2 08:30 TD BAL (8:30) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen to DEN 01 for 11 yards (58-V.Miller). Baltimore challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – BAL 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG BAL (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. DEN 14 – BAL 20
  • Q3 07:29 TD BAL (7:29) 37-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – BAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 43-J.Jones, Center-46-M.Cox, recovered by BAL-37-J.Allen at BAL 4. 37-J.Allen to BAL 6 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (3:43) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:53) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 38 yards to BAL 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-80-J.Butt.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-D.Hamilton.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:26) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to BAL 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-40-K.Bierria.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (7:10) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-T.White to BAL 28 for 4 yards (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (4:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, RECOVERED by DEN-25-C.Harris at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton to DEN 15 for 6 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 35 yards to 50, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:56) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 55 yards to BAL 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-T.White to BAL 18 for 7 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 17 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 47%

    (1:29) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 37 yards to BAL 05, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-14-C.Sutton.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton to DEN 45 for 12 yards (54-T.Bowser).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton pushed ob at DEN 30 for 13 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (3:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Butt.