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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, RECOVERED by DEN-25-C.Harris at DEN 42. 25-C.Harris for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DEN-94-D.Peko, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 39.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model