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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton to DEN 15 for 6 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model