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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 42

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(1:29) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 37 yards to BAL 05, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-14-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model