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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton to DEN 45 for 12 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model