Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Denver Broncos 14

(7:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Hamilton pushed ob at DEN 30 for 13 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model