4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP