Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 62

Denver Broncos 14 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(:53) (Punt formation) 1-M.King punts 38 yards to BAL 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-80-J.Butt.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model