Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 98

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(13:50) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 33 yards to LV 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -4.25 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.34 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 98, worth -6.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model