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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

OAK
35.6%
MIA
64.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 20
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

OAK

P.J. Hall DT Out Ankle
Nick Nelson CB Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Reshad Jones S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 20
–
MIA 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:39 TD LV (13:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Nelson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 12:17 TD MIA (12:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Key]. OAK 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 03:35 FG LV (3:35) (Field Goal formation) 6-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 10 – MIA 7
  • Q3 03:01 TD LV (3:01) 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – MIA 7
  • Q3 01:01 TD MIA (1:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 19-J.Grant for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – MIA 13
  • Q4 07:30 TD MIA (7:30) 15-A.Wilson pass deep right to 19-J.Grant for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The play was an end around OAK 17 – MIA 20
  • Q4 02:11 TD MIA (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:25 FG LV (:25) (Field Goal formation) 6-M.Nugent 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 20 – MIA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:06) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 59 yards to LV 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie to LV 8 for -1 yards (92-J.Denney). PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at LV 8.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (6:57) 41-K.Smith right guard to MIA 1 for no gain (56-D.Godchaux, 93-A.Spence). Penalty on MIA-50-A.Branch, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on LV-76-J.Feliciano, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to LV 41, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-30-J.Richard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 18 yards, enforced at LV 20. Penalty was 2 yards, enforced from the LV 4 yard line.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:50) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 33 yards to LV 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (3:35) (Field Goal formation) 6-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:56) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 56 yards to LV 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to LV 33 for 11 yards (34-S.Perry; 44-S.Anthony).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:04) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to MIA 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:33) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to LV 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, touched at LV 19, and recovers at LV 17. 82-J.Nelson to LV 17 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:16) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 25 yards to MIA 30, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-25-E.Harris.