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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Field Goal formation) 6-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model