Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(12:56) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 56 yards to LV 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to LV 33 for 11 yards (34-S.Perry; 44-S.Anthony).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.84 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model