Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 59 yards to LV 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 45-D.Rodgers-Cromartie to LV 8 for -1 yards (92-J.Denney). PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at LV 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.55 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model