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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 54 yards to MIA 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model