Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to LV 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-J.Nelson MUFFS catch, touched at LV 19, and recovers at LV 17. 82-J.Nelson to LV 17 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model