Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(2:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to LV 41, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model