Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-30-J.Richard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 18 yards, enforced at LV 20. Penalty was 2 yards, enforced from the LV 4 yard line.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model