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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model