4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

SF
30.9%
KC
69.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.524 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.242 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
KC 29
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SF

Joshua Garnett G Out Toe
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Quadricep
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Shoulder

KC

Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Ben Niemann LB Doubtful Hamstring
Spencer Ware RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
KC 38

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:27 TD KC (8:27) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:23 TD KC (2:23) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 12:01 TD SF (12:01) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – KC 14
  • Q2 09:04 TD KC (9:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-C.Conley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – KC 20
  • Q2 03:42 TD KC (3:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 84-D.Harris for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – KC 27
  • Q2 00:41 TD KC (:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – KC 34
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 10 – KC 35
  • Q3 09:04 TD SF (9:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-M.Goodwin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – KC 35
  • Q3 02:48 TD SF (2:48) (No Huddle) 46-A.Morris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – KC 35
  • Q4 13:51 FG KC (13:51) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. SF 24 – KC 38
  • Q4 05:21 FG SF (5:21) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 27 – KC 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right guard to SF 17 for 2 yards (54-C.Marsh).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 43%

    (5:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to KC 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 16 for 5 yards (88-G.Celek).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 61%

    (12:35) 46-A.Morris left guard to KC 35 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to KC 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to KC 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 24%

    (11:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to SF 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to SF 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 45 for 13 yards (25-A.Watts). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 33.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (13:51) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

    (8:06) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to KC 17 for 1 yard (59-R.Ragland; 21-E.Murray).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (5:21) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.