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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model