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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model