4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 20:20 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

BAL
43.6%
PIT
56.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.232 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 25
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Hamstring
Willie Henry DT Out Abdomen
Brandon Carr CB Questionable Knee
Anthony Levine S Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Knee
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Foot
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Foot
Hayden Hurst TE Questionable Foot
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Knee

PIT

Morgan Burnett S Doubtful Groin
Mike Hilton CB Doubtful Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 26
–
PIT 14

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:52 TD BAL (10:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 13-J.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 08:07 TD BAL (8:07) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 34-A.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – PIT 0
  • Q2 14:10 FG PIT (14:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 14 – PIT 3
  • Q2 06:29 FG PIT (6:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 14 – PIT 6
  • Q2 02:59 TD PIT (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – PIT 12
  • Q3 04:03 FG BAL (4:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – PIT 14
  • Q4 11:47 FG BAL (11:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – PIT 14
  • Q4 03:40 FG BAL (3:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – PIT 14
  • Q4 02:00 FG BAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 26 – PIT 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:15) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to BAL 42, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:40) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (14:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (6:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 18 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 24 for 3 yards (47-D.Turner, 41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-57-K.Canaday. 14-T.White ran ob at BAL 26 for 4 yards.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (7:32) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to BAL 20, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (4:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to BAL 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 50%

    (14:18) (Run formation) 10-C.Moore left guard to PIT 39 for 3 yards (25-A.Burns, 98-V.Williams).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 76%

    (11:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 47 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (3:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster (41-A.Levine Sr.).