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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP