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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model