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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to BAL 32, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 14-T.White.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model