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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.82 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP