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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model