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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 26

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster (41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -1.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP