Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 35-K.Tandy, Center-46-C.Harris, recovered by CIN-81-T.Kroft at CIN 8. 81-T.Kroft to CIN 8 for no gain (29-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model