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Cincinnati Bengals

3-1 HC Marvin Lewis
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

1-3 HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

CIN
37.3%
ATL
62.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.168 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.002 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22 15–29
–
ATL 26 19–33
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Joe Mixon RB Out Knee
Billy Price C Out Foot

ATL

Justin Bethel CB Out Knee
Derrick Shelby DE Out Groin
Devonta Freeman RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 37
–
ATL 36

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:33 TD ATL (10:33) 25-I.Smith left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 07:30 TD CIN (7:30) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – ATL 7
  • Q1 00:19 TD CIN (:19) 25-G.Bernard left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – ATL 7
  • Q2 11:09 TD ATL (11:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 82-L.Paulsen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – ATL 13
  • Q2 08:18 TD CIN (8:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 15-J.Ross for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – ATL 14
  • Q2 03:00 TD ATL (3:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – ATL 20
  • Q2 00:48 TD CIN (:48) 94-S.Hubbard and 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 25-G.Bernard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – ATL 21
  • Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 3-M.Bryant 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CIN 28 – ATL 24
  • Q3 11:25 FG ATL (11:25) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CIN 28 – ATL 27
  • Q4 14:31 TD ATL (14:31) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 28 – ATL 33
  • Q4 08:23 FG CIN (8:23) 4-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 31 – ATL 33
  • Q4 04:18 FG ATL (4:18) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. Penalty on CIN-29-T.McRae, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 31 – ATL 36
  • Q4 00:12 TD CIN (:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – ATL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 46%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at CIN 49 for -5 yards (97-G.Atkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:16) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 35-K.Tandy, Center-46-C.Harris, recovered by CIN-81-T.Kroft at CIN 8. 81-T.Kroft to CIN 8 for no gain (29-J.Richards).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (11:25) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 18 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

    (7:47) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 42 for 13 yards (82-L.Paulsen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (8:23) 4-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (4:18) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. Penalty on CIN-29-T.McRae, Defensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 24 for 11 yards (21-D.Trufant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to ATL 13 for 7 yards (21-D.Trufant).

    See the full breakdown →